Relationships between climate and winter cereal grain quality in Finland and their potential for forecasting

Hollins, P.D., Kettlewell, P.S., Peltonen-Sainio, P. and Atkinson, M.D. (2004) Relationships between climate and winter cereal grain quality in Finland and their potential for forecasting. Agricultural and Food Science, 13 (3). pp. 295-308.

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Abstract

Many studies have demonstrated the effects of climate on cereal yield, but there has been little workcarried out examining the relationships between climate and cereal grain quality on a national scale.In this study national mean hectolitre weight for both rye and winter wheat in Finland was modelledusing monthly gridded accumulated snow depth, precipitation rate, solar radiation and temperatureover the period 1971 to 2001. Variables with significant relationships in correlation analysis bothbefore and after difference detrending were further investigated using forward stepwise regression.For rye, March snow depth, and June and July solar radiation accounted for 66% of the year-to-yearvariance in hectolitre weight, and for winter wheat January snow depth, June solar radiation andAugust temperature accounted for 62% of the interannual variance in hectolitre weight. Further anal-ysis of national variety trials and weather station data was used to support proposed biological mech-anisms. Finally a cross validation technique was used to test forecast models with those variablesavailable by early July by making predictions of above or below the mean hectolitre weight. Analysisof the contingency tables for these predictions indicated that national hectolitre weight forecasts arefeasible for both cereals in advance of harvest.

Item Type: Article
Divisions: Crop and Environment Sciences
Depositing User: Mr Darren Roberts
Date Deposited: 14 Nov 2018 13:07
Last Modified: 29 Nov 2018 12:39
URI: http://hau.repository.guildhe.ac.uk/id/eprint/16370

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